Irão incapaz de fechar o Estreito de Ormuz

Num artigo publicado no Arab News um antigo oficial da marinha saudita publica duvida que os iranianos tenham capacidade de levar a cabo a ameaça de fechar o Estreito de Ormuz:

If Iran [makes] an official declaration to close the Strait of Hormuz, then [it will be] committing political and military suicide. The Iranians will not know what hit them. We all know what happened to Jamal Abdul Nasser when he closed the Strait of Tiran in 1967.

“Iran doesn’t have the military capability to close the strait. About three years after the 1988 battle with the Iranians, the US Navy aircraft carrier USS Nimitz was launching F-14, F-18 and E-2 aircraft day and night while patrolling the Arabian Gulf… The Iranians knew about what the USS Nimitz could do. [So] later they decided to use a safer approach to defend the Iranian shores. They installed Silkworm Anti-Ship Missiles. But later on they realized they [couldn’t] protect these missiles. They remembered what happened to the Syrians when they [deployed] missiles in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon without air superiority.

“The Iranians have neither sophisticated torpedoes [nor] sophisticated surface-to-air missiles, and they have no airborne radar (AWACS) capability. As for their outdated diesel submarines, the Iranians are not well trained for sophisticated underwater operations, and their submarines have very limited capabilities. And the Iranian’s [greatest] military weakness is that they don’t have an air force. The Iranian high-tech planes – the F-14 (Tomcat) and F-4 (Phantom) – are very old, and their radar system… is inoperative due to age and lack of maintenance and spare parts. Their pilots are always operating in the dark because they have no command or control. The only strength the Iranian have is the land forces. They could [deploy] hundreds of thousands of soldiers. But these forces will be useless for sea battles… and have no air support.

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